My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit

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Check out my most recent article on Seeking Alpha giving an updated rationale behind our fund’s Short position in Green Mountain:

My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit
by Yaron Ron Reuven

Anyone who has followed Green Mountain (GMCR), turned on CNBC at least once in the last couple of years, or simply browsed yahoo finance, knows that GMCR and its management have been party to a Class Action Lawsuit that has been nastier than most. What’s more interesting is that most people, including shareholders, have not actually read the lawsuit complaint page by page. Having a short position in the stock, which I discussed in my first SA article last month, we spend each waking hour searching the world for more information about each of our investments. read more »

“This Blog is for the purpose of sharing of personal opinion and should not be construed in any way as advice. The information contained in this report or information provided does not purport to be complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The contributors to this blog and or their affiliates may directly or indirectly have active positions in the securities that are mentioned. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ron Reuven is a registered principal of Reuven Enterprises Securities Division, Member FINRA/SIPC & Licensed MSRB Dealer, a fully owned subsidiary of Reuven Enterprises Inc. and is President & Managing Partner of Reuven Capital Investments, LP (long/short equity hedge fund).”

Double Dip Recession or Buying Opportunity? Part II

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It was only a few short weeks ago that I wrote the first part of this article—a time where the market tunnel only seemed to get darker, with no light in sight.  After one of the worst September starts recorded, we have just ended the 4th day in a row of market gains.  The truth of the matter is that neither one of the facts stated in the preceding sentence really has much value for long term investors.  There are so many unanswered questions and conflicting opinions from “authorities” surfacing the exchanges, investors, and markets alike, are starting to get some serious whiplash damage from all of this volatility.

All investors really want today is their confidence, finally attained just a few short months ago, back.  As discussed previously, confidence is not a tangible item, and can be gained just as quickly as it was lost—and [ironically] for the very same underlying reasons in some cases.   But in order for investors to get their confidence back, we must commit to looking at the facts at hand, in addition to ignoring the noise.

America is only an AA rated country now!

If this statement was really true, it would be widely accepted by the investment community, and not contradicted daily by the positive performance of the US treasury prices and weekly auctions following the downgrade.  I believe my wife was best at putting this rating downgrade in perspective by saying “we’re AA in comparison to what/who?” A rating of anything is always compared to a certain “par” standard if you will.  With that being said, who is better than the US right now? Not by some controversial rating agency, but reality.  Would you prefer to have your money held in the other countries that are still rated AAA, just because of their rating—ignoring the fact that they depend on our economy and currency more than we will ever be able to depend on theirs?

It seems to me that the S&P ignored their own systems and decided to publicize their personal opinions of our current administration and political situation by issuing this downgrade.  None of us were happy about the games our government has been playing recently, but I don’t think anyone else stopped doing their job in retaliation.

*Of course everyone knows the story about how this very same “Rating Agency” completely enabled the subprime market debacle by issuing AAA ratings to any issuer that would just pay them their fee, regardless of how horrifying the underlying securities were. To make matters worse, they issued a AAA rating on a subprime mortgage security right after they downgraded the United States of America just last month.  So let me get this straight, the S&P believes that a bunch of “individuals with a faulty credit history” are more likely to pay their debt off—in an economy where I would boldly assume some of them are currently unemployed—than the richest country in the world, that is coincidentally capable of printing their own currency?  Regardless of what your political opinion is (I’m not a fan either), think about the absurdity of that statement for a second. On one hand, we have individuals that have a proven faulty credit track record, and are likely collecting the government’s endless unemployment money.  While on the other, we have the richest country in the world, that can print more money if they are not successful at generating the money fast enough to pay their debts.  It seems to me that McGraw Hill (owner of the S&P) should take steps to completely shut down the agency (or at least replace everyone from top to bottom) before they make the move, recently announced, to split up the company.  To summarize, a rating is only as good as the quality of the rater.  Since the S&P has not only acted in what my wife believes to be borderline Treason, but also infected the markets with their stupidity, I feel like if we cannot force them to be shut down, we should at least ignore their ratings on the USA.

Meredith Whitney and the Municipal Blowup That Never Happened

It was just a year ago when analyst Meredith Whitney gave a prediction that the $3+ Trillion Municipal Bond market will have some 50 to 100 major blowups, totaling hundreds of billions.  Fortunately she was wrong.  As of May of 2011 (when I revised my 2009 Municipal Bond article with some recent facts), there were only a total of 64 Municipal defaults totaling $5.4 Billion (0.2% of the market)  since the start of the recent crisis.  This of course does not mean that other defaults are not a possibility, because as we all know “past performance is not a guarantee of future results.”  The point I am trying to make is that the fear of danger is sometimes more destructive than the danger itself.

There are quite a few municipalities that have to cut costs and explore multiple measures in order to address the current circumstances.  But I don’t believe we are quite at the point where Mrs. Whitney’s prediction is something to be concerned about.  It was not too long ago where the media wouldn’t shut up about the risk of default by the state of California (and others).  The way I looked at it then and now is that if the government was generous enough to bail out some private financial institutions, and foreign countries, at their time of need, I would expect them to lend a hand or two to one of their own states, especially when that state is considered one of the top economies in the world today (even after the crises).

Although Whitney’s prediction has not come to fruition, she’s not alone in this business.  As Vince Lombardi once said, “If you’re not making mistakes, you’re not trying hard enough.”  In this business, both bulls and bears are bound to be right at some point.  The tough part is the timing.  As a side note, Whitney recently announced on CNBC that she may be launching a new rating system to compete with the S&P, and other rating agencies.  Her timing on starting the new business couldn’t be more perfect, and the competition is too busy digging their own grave.

Is the Volatility Here to stay?

Though this may not be the most optimistic section of this article, I am afraid that the answer to that question is more important than anything else I have written, if you plan on investing in the market.   Simply put, the volatility is here to stay and will only get worse. In fact I have been predicting higher volatility and 1000+ point swings/day, as the new normal for some time now.  I believe that time is near, if not already here.  On a positive note, the volatility does not always have to be on the negative side of the market.  It could just as easily go up as it did go down recently.

Most non-professional investors are passive on the day to day movement of the markets, and usually look at the closing prices for the market indices.  The Dow Jones ends up or down a couple of hundred, and the others are performing the same.  From that perspective, this is a movie we have seen countless times for over the past decade.  What many of these investors don’t realize are the huge tsunami swings that we have to navigate from the open to the close of business each day.  These swings can easily add up to over 5% in a matter of hours, and sometimes even minutes.

The cause of this volatility has nothing to do with the fundamentals of our economy or markets.  It has to do with the change in the infrastructure of our markets today, to cater to High Frequency Trading firms, who have taken control and responsibility for the majority of the daily trading in our markets.   When I first came into this industry in the late 90’s, this computerized trading monster was a very small part of the market, which was mostly unnoticed.  Today, HFT firms control close to 90% of the daily trading volumes. These HFT firms have created algorithm programs that allow their computer systems to make their trading decisions for them, and take action to execute those decisions without human interference.  What, when, how much to buy or sell.   Since a computer does not have the physical and emotional limitations that flesh and blood have, it can execute thousands of trades in seconds, in comparison to a typical trader that can just do a few.

The advocates of High Frequency Trading continuously argue that this additional volume has benefited investors by making the markets much more liquid, which has led to a rapid decrease in trading costs.  That sounds great and all, but “At what cost?”

What many investors and regulators have not yet realized is that High Frequency Trading has changed the markets’ infrastructure to such a degree that it has created a systemic problem that could overwhelm any crises we have yet to see. Although liquidity and lower costs are definite pluses for investors, the increase in volatility is something that will only get more extreme as more and more HFT firms open up shop, while existing ones increase their computer power.  To breakdown this complex new problem into very simple context, here is the root of the problem.  Despite the fact that each of these HFT firms may have different algorithms to use for their own trading, they’re all indirectly tied to each other.    So let’s say 100 computers have some XYZ Index on their radar screen.  Once XYZ reaches a certain target (whether a price target, percentage move, or any other trigger), many of these computers will end up executing the same trade at the same time, magnifying the effect dramatically more than any human can ever handle—think May 6th, 2010 flash crash.   These genius mathematical programs have a simple mathematical flaw—there can only be just so many trigger points.   So regardless of how each of these algorithms were calculated to come up with the trigger point, once that point is hit, they all take the same action—magnifying the effect on the (XYZ Index )market with very few limitations.

This magnified effect can happen in both directions so quickly that investors have been part of market swings of hundreds of points without even having enough time to realize that it even happened.   This systemic problem has changed the infrastructure of the marketplace to such a degree that I have recently come to the conclusion that most traditional investors are in such an uneven playing field, it would be close to impossible for many of them to make money in the market in the years ahead without making drastic changes. This is not because I believe the market won’t go up, but rather because the volatility from point A to point B is going to be so extreme, that most investors will not be able to survive the journey.

It’s not about one strategy or another.  Whether you buy and hold, like we have done for clients since I first started in the business, or trade in and out of the market, I believe any plain vanilla strategy is at a disadvantage.  Mutual funds that only depend on their investments going up, since they do not short any investments, are eventually going to either become obsolete or restructured.  Traditional buying and holding is still a good core foundation, but to be effective it must utilize additional tools most investors are just not familiar with, nor nearly active enough to truly utilize effectively.  Diversifying in everything (or some index) is not really investing in my opinion, and just says the investor has no clue what they’re doing.   Buying stocks because of their dividend yield does not make much sense to me either.  A 5% dividend is nice plus for some people, but does that really matter if the stock is down 40%?

Trading the market day to day may have become cheaper for investors to do on their own using discount brokers, but will inevitably lead to much higher losses for many.  This is not to say that HFT is going to be the only way to make money, but rather to say that the game is changed enough to force anyone interested in having a real chance to adapt to the markets regularly.  Of course I have always had a biased opinion about investors using professionals to manage their money, but something tells me that I won’t have to continue arguing that point for very much longer.

Long Term buy and hold is still my preferable choice of investment strategy.  But the only way this can be done effectively, is if we add countless tools to hedge our positions, use multiple asset classes, navigate the market opportunities carefully & regularly, and constantly tweak the strategy in order for it to adapt to the lightning speed changes we are racing against every day.

To say that the last few months have been a difficult market environment would be an understatement.    Few investors have escaped the market’s wrath unscathed, at least not intentionally.  But this leads me to my core point of this article, strategy!  One of the most difficult things for a money manager to do is to know when to second guess themselves, and when to just adjust.  Most investors that are losing money automatically believe that something is wrong with their investments.  This may be the case, but rarely is it the case for all of your holdings if your money manager did his job to begin with.  Although there are quite a few economic and political problems the world (and some businesses) is facing today, the facts show that the problems are not as great as it may seem.  It really matters how you view everything.  For some a 9% unemployment number is horrifying, while others can simply look at the fact that it also means we have 91%% employment.  Of course we can always improve, and I am optimistic that we will in time.  The adjustments necessary for most portfolios have more to do with the infrastructure of the market than the economic circumstances we’re in.  It is very difficult to convince the world (and investors) to take action before the problem is there, but hopefully many will take action before it is in fact too late.

All the best,

Yaron “Ron” Reuven

President & CEO

“This Blog is for the purpose of sharing of personal opinion and should not be construed in any way as advice. The information contained in this report or information provided does not purport to be complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The contributors to this blog and or their affiliates may directly or indirectly have active positions in the securities that are mentioned. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ron Reuven is a registered principal of Reuven Enterprises Securities Division, Member FINRA/SIPC & Licensed MSRB Dealer, a fully owned subsidiary of Reuven Enterprises Inc. and is President & Managing Partner of Reuven Capital Investments, LP (long/short equity hedge fund).”

Why Municipal Bonds?

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Originally Posted: May 2009
Revised: May 2011

Revised Municipal Bonds article to reflect some updates:

Recovering from the recent economic & market collapse is not going to be a simple task for many people.  In addition to the vaporization of Trillions of dollars, the recent collapse has instilled extraordinary fear in most investors.  It is no surprise that the current panic has led investors to accumulate nearly $10 Trillion dollars in cash or equivalent holdings that are currently sitting un-invested on the sidelines, waiting for better times.  With savings accounts, CDs and Treasuries only yielding a [taxable] average of approximately 2.3%, it would take almost century to get back what many people lost… literally!

For investors who are not yet ready to invest back into the equity side of the market, don’t worry, this article is not going argue that point.  In fact, all I will do today is show you that if you are currently interested in the preservation of capital, you should continue to do so, but consider that there may be a more effective way.  This specific article was written to help educate our clients on the basics of Municipal “Muni” Bonds.  This should give you better idea of what Municipal Bonds are, so that [together] we can make a more well-informed decision as to whether or not Muni Bonds would be useful tools in mapping out your personal financial strategy.

WHAT IS THE BASIC DEFINITION OF A BOND?

In the world of finance, a bond is simply a type of loan that the issuer (public authorities, credit institutions, companies, etc.) owes to the holders (institutional & individual investors). Investors are technically loaning money to an entity when they buy its bonds. Along with paying the principal back at a later date (maturity), the issuing entity is also obligated to pay interest payments (coupon) at predetermined intervals (usually semi-annually or annually).

Although bonds and stocks are both securities, bond holders are senior to stocks holders and most other creditors in the case of a default.  A major difference between the two is that bond holders are lenders to the entity, whereas stock holders are the owners of the entity.  One of the major factors that make bonds more conservative than stocks is that they can still recover some or all of their principal investment in the event of an entity’s default, whereas stock holders are most likely at an absolute loss.  Default statistics from a recent study conducted by The Municipal Bond Fairness Act on September 9th, 2008 are shown on the next page.

Bonds can vary significantly based on the terms of the bond’s indenture—a formal debt agreement outlining the characteristics of the bond. Because each bond issue is different, it is important to understand the terms before investing.

WHAT IS THE BASIC DEFINITION OF A MUNICIPAL BOND (MUNI)?

A Municipal Bond is a bond issued by a city or other local government or agency (i.e. cities, counties, public school districts, public healthcare facilities or airports etc.).  They are issued for the purpose of raising capital for infrastructure or other purpose projects when these entities cannot or do not wish to pay immediately with readily available funds.  When you buy a municipal bond, you are lending the money to the issuer in exchange for a predetermined interest payment along with a commitment to receive your principal back at the maturity date.  Interest income received by holders of municipal bonds is often exempt from all Federal Income Tax, State & Local Income Tax of the state in which they are issued.  This is the reason why Municipal Bonds are more advantageous to individuals with high incomes rather than lower incomes.  The tax exemption of many Municipal Bonds can potentially provide higher absolute returns than tax deferred investments made in Qualified Retirement Accounts (401k, IRA’s, Annuities etc.).[1] Either way, if the primary investing objective is to preserve capital while generating a tax-free income stream, Municipal Bonds can be one of the best options available.

When making an investment in Municipal Bonds, investors must make sure that they are aware that some Municipal Bonds are taxable and subject to Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).  The taxability of a bond is determined by the type of project that is being funded by the issued bonds.  I am personally a licensed Municipal Securities Principal and have a team of experienced Financial Advisors on staff.  Knowledge, experience and access to many markets and tools are critical when dealing in the Municipal Bond Market.

MUNICIPAL BONDS CAN COME IN THE FOLLOWING TWO VARIETIES:

1. General Obligation Bonds (G.O.)
2. Revenue Bonds (REV)

General Obligation Bonds “G.O. Bonds”, are a common type of Municipal Bond in the United States, and are secured by the municipalities pledge to legally use available resources, such as tax revenues, in order to pay back the bond holders.  G.O. Bonds pledges include a pledge to levy Property Tax in order to meet the debt owed to Bond holders.  In the case of taxpayer delinquency, the General Obligation requires the municipality to pay the debt owed to bond holders out of its available resources.

Revenue Bonds are issued to fund revenue generating infrastructure projects, such as Toll Roads, Bridges, Tunnels, University Dormitories, Water, Sewers, Airports, Power Plants and Prisons.  They differ from G.O. Bonds because they are guaranteed solely from the revenues generated by the associated project that has been funded by the bonds.  Taxes, tolls and fees generated from these facilities ultimately pay off the bond holders.  Revenue Bonds issued to fund education and school systems are generally backed by income or progressive taxes.

Both types of bonds are often tax exempt and are particularly attractive to risk-averse investors due to the high likelihood that the issuers will repay their debts.

WHAT ARE SOME REASONS PEOPLE INVEST IN MUNICIPAL BONDS?

In general, Municipal Bonds could be a part of every well diversified portfolio.  As of December 31st, 2008 the total outstanding state and local debt obligations was nearly $2.7 Trillion[2].  Age, financial condition and objectives are just some of the factors that our advisors consider when they determine how you would be able to take advantage of Municipal Bonds.  If the investing objective is to preserve capital while generating a tax-free income stream, municipal bonds can be a very distinguishable choice.

Preservation of Capital: Since Muni Bonds are debt obligations issued by government entities the likelihood that the issuer will repay their debt back to the holder is often greater than other comparable investments. This often makes the credit risk of Muni Bonds considered better than other comparable investments.   According to a study published in The Municipal Bond Fairness Act on September 9th, 2008 the historical default rate of all Municipal Bonds reported by Moody’s and the S&P is only 0.10 and 0.29%  respectively {0.001 and .0029}.  High Investment Grade bonds have an even more impeccable track record.  A comparison of Municipal Bonds to Corporate Bonds is shown on Table A.[3] In addition, investors should also realize that even in the circumstances of defaulted municipal bonds, the historical average recovery rate is 66% of the face value.

 
TABLE A
CUMULATIVE HISTORIC DEFAULT RATES [In percent]
Moody’s S&P
Muni Corp Muni Corp
Aaa/AAA…………………… 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.60
Aa/AA………………………. 0.06 0.52 0.00 1.50
A/A………………………….. 0.03 1.29 0.23 2.91
Baa/BBB……………………. 0.13 4.64 0.32 10.29
Ba/BB……………………….. 2.65 19.12 1.74 29.93
B/B………………………….. 11.86 43.34 8.48 53.72
Caa-C/CCC-C……………… 16.58 69.18 44.81 69.19
Investment Grade………. 0.07 2.09 0.20 4.14
Non-Invest Grade………. 4.29 31.37 7.37 42.35
All……………………….. 0.10 9.70 0.29 12.98

Source. Moody’s, S&P.

 

One of the things that we have all learned during the market collapse of 2008 is that the idea of “too big to fail” does not always apply.  Although Certificates of Deposits and other Bank deposits are considered safe investments, investors must realize that in the case of a bank failure, the FDIC insurance limit is normally $100,000 per bank—the $250,000 FDIC insurance limit that was passed in 2008 is currently considered temporary.  So a $400,000 CD would be in jeopardy in the case of a bank failure under the current insurance limits provided solely by FDIC.  In comparison, Muni Bonds are usually held at Member FINRA broker dealers, most of which is required to carry SIPC insurance[4].  SIPC insurance at Reuven Enterprises Securities Division (or any other Member FINRA firm) is $500,000 per customer, with no more than $100,000 in cash.  For more information about SIPC, how it works and who are the member firms please visit their website at www.sipc.org.

To clarify, SIPC insurance versus FDIC insurance does not by itself make Municipal Bonds more conservative than CD’s and other Bank deposits.  In fact, there are many cases where the contrary is true.  This information is only to educate you further about intricate details of the industry, and is only pertaining to circumstances where the entity’s solvency comes into question (e.g. Bank failure[5] or Brokerage failure[6]).  Before the FDIC insurance comes into the equation, the bank has to fail, whereas the SIPC only comes into question if the brokerage firm fails.  The solvency of a municipality, not the brokerage firm, is guaranteeing the Municipal Bond, and the SIPC insurance would not come into effect if the municipality failed, but rather if the Brokerage firm failed. In the age where Too Big To Fail came into question, one must consider all factors when evaluating investments, and this is just another one to consider, not a determining factor.

Liquidity:[7] One of the most common misconceptions about Municipal Bonds is that they are like most other conservative, income-generating investments and “lock your money up until maturity.” This is far from the truth! Municipal bonds are LIQUID! This is actually one of the biggest advantageous that Muni Bonds have over other comparable investments.  You can buy and sell your bond in the open market.  In fact some professional traders make a very good living trading bonds on a short term basis.  Although the price may vary from day to day on bonds, with all things being equal, Muni Bonds are generally not viewed as volatile securities.  So even if you own a Muni Bond that matures in 20 years, you can sell it tomorrow if you and your advisor believe it would be in your best investment interest.  This is not to imply that day-trading Muni Bonds is a recommended practice, but I think you get the point.

Taxation of Muni Bonds: As it was mentioned previously, interest income received by holders of municipal bonds is often exempt from all Federal Income Tax, State & Local Income Tax of the state in which they are issued.  This is the reason why Municipal Bonds are more advantageous to individuals with higher incomes than lower ones.  Note that in the case the price of the bond increases, the gains on the principal amount are not tax exempt.  To put this in perspective and show you how to calculate the Tax Equivalent Yield consider this:

Tax Equivalent Yield = Muni Bond Rate as whole #/
(1-[ Federal Tax Rate + State Tax Rate])

8.77 % = 5 % Bond / 1 – [0.33 + 0.10]

Diversification: Whether you are a Growth oriented investor that is willing to take more market risk, or you are a more Conservative investor that is not really interested or able to absorb the market’s volatility, the investment of Municipal Bonds can be very valuable to you as part of diversifying your portfolio.  A growth investor that wants to mitigate some of the risk and volatility of his/her equity holdings can still have a large stake in the long term fruition of the public markets.  An example of this would be by allocating a 75% of his assets into the equities, while maintaining a 25% portion of his portfolio into High Grade Municipal Bonds.   If his equity holdings are down 30%, while the bond portion of the portfolio has stayed stable (i.e. flat) and generated a 5% yield, his portfolio would only be down 17.5 % rather than 30%, had the entire portfolio been in equities.

On the other hand, a conservative investor, that is unable or unwilling to deal with the market’s volatility, but still needs to generate a higher rate of return, can have the opposite allocation—75% Bonds, 25% stocks.  In the case the market recovers and his Growth portfolio is up 30%, while his Bonds stayed stable (i.e. flat) and yielded 5%, his overall portfolio would be up 12.5% instead of just 5% by only holding the Bonds.  Note that these examples are for illustrative purposes only, and are by no means taking your individual situation into account. Also consider the fact that municipal bonds do fluctuate in price, so the examples are extreme just illustrate a theory, and by no means are a guarantee against a loss or assurance against any price fluctuation.

The low correlation[8] between Bonds and Stocks makes Municipal Bonds another great tool when you are building a diversified portfolio[9].

WHAT ARE SOME BUYING STRATEGIES USED WITH MUNI BONDS?

There are many different types of Bond Investing Strategies.  They range from passive long term investing, to a more active approach that allows the investor to take advantage of market pricing along with the other benefits mentioned previously.  Buying municipal bonds is not like buying a CD, where the main concern is the higher yield.  In general, the higher the yield, the lower the grade of the bond, and the higher the potential risk is.   Under most circumstances, there are rarely any reasons to frequently trade Municipal Bonds, unless you are a professional.  But the fact that investors have the capability of doing so (i.e. liquidity) makes them one of the best asset classes available today.  

I OWN SOME BOND MUTUAL FUNDS, ISN’T THAT THE SAME THING?

Without going into every detail, the answer is simply NO! Although bond funds do serve certain purposes, there are several additional benefits that owning the actual individual Muni Bonds will provide that the bond funds cannot.  The first, in my opinion, is the fact that you know exactly what you own, rather than knowing about the top 10 holdings.  This type of transparency may not matter to most people, but again this is my opinion.

The second benefit is probably more popular—state & local tax exemption. If you own a bond fund, you probably own an extraordinary amount of bonds from across the country in that fund. Although this diversification may sooth the risk-averse investors in some ways, it eliminates the state & local tax benefit that many municipal bond holders are entitled to. A bond holder can only get the state & local tax exemption in bonds that are issued in the state he resides in.

Lastly, the cost benefits of owning individual bonds versus bonds through a fund. I know that this is probably the last thing you thought you would hear from someone that is in “the business”, but I guess you may have to get to know me to understand. When you buy a bond in a traditional commission based brokerage account, and decide to hold on to it for the long run, the onetime cost is minimal in comparison. In a fund, although you may not be getting a bill every month, I hope you do realize that the fund does charge management and other types of fees, even if you did not have a transaction in years. This factor may not affect all investors the same way, but if you compare the yields offered by some of these open ended bond mutual funds, you will find that some of them are actually offering only 3 or 4 % yields currently, whereas you can probably find an AAA rated bond that is offering 5.25% in some states. When you are working on large sums of money, along with such small percentages, that 31 – 75 percent difference makes a difference.

Also keep in mind that if you are in a fee based account, the circumstances can actually be even less favorable for you than previously mentioned.  But that’s another long argument you will find more details about in my next article “The Truth about Fees vs. Commissions.”


WHAT MAKES MUNI’S MORE LUCRATIVE TODAY THAN ANY OTHER TIME IN HISTORY?

Because of the additional state & local tax exemptions that Municipal Bonds offer over Treasuries (Treasuries only have the Federal Tax Exemptions), the traditional yields that Treasuries offer is historically much higher than Municipal Bonds.  In fact, the typical rate (i.e. yield) of Municipal Bonds is only 85% of the yield offered by a 30 year U.S. Treasury[10].  Not in this market!  As a result of the panic reactions of many investors, an extraordinary amount of money has been moved into U.S. Treasuries, driving up the price, and lowering the yield to as low as 2.6%.  In comparison, many AAA rated municipal bonds can be bought at or below par, yielding investors over 5%–nearly 100% more return, even if you exclude the additional tax benefits.  This has happened only a few times in the past, but not to such extremes.[11]

With many Treasuries trading at a premium to par[12], investors may be happy that they did not lose money during the 2008 stock market collapse, but if they decide to hold on to them for the long run (i.e. until maturity), they are practically guaranteed to lose money since they mature at 100 (i.e. par).  They may be “considered” the safest investments around, since they are guaranteed by the U.S. government, but if you include all of the factors, there may be a better way.

CONCLUSION

Although Municipal Bonds have not been the highest return generating investments throughout history, they were never meant to be.  The Municipal Bond market is nearly a $2.7 Trillion dollar market[13] with a low enough historical default ratio that has made them one of the safest investments available today[14].  They have helped many individuals and institutions mitigate the volatility risk that the stock market has, while offering tax benefits that are hard to compete with.  Wealthy Investors can benefit more from the tax exemptions, and smaller investors can preserve their capital while maintaining a respectable yield.  It is hard to argue with the fact that Municipal Bonds can be a useful tool to investors that are interested in a well diversified portfolio.

All the best,

Ron Reuven

President, CEO and Licensed Municipal Securities Principal

Risk Factors
While buying municipals bonds is viewed as a conservative investment strategy, it is not risk-free. The following are the risk factors;
Credit Risk: If the issuer is unable to meets its financial obligations, it may fail to make scheduled interest payments and/or be unable to repay the principal upon maturity. To assist in the evaluation of an issuer’s creditworthiness, ratings agencies, such as Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s analyze a bond issuer’s ability to meet its debt obligations, and issue ratings from ‘Aaa’ or ‘AAA’ for the most creditworthy issuers to ‘Ca’, ‘C’, ‘D’, ‘DDD’, ‘DD’ or ‘D’ for those in default. Bonds rated ‘BBB’, ‘Baa’ or better are generally considered appropriate investments when capital preservation is the primary objective. To reduce investor concern, many municipal bonds are backed by insurance policies guaranteeing repayment in the event of default.
Interest-Rate Risk: The interest rate of most municipal bonds is paid at a fixed rate. The rate does not change over the life of the bond. If interest rates in the marketplace rise, the bond you own will be paying a lower yield relative to the yield offered by newly issued bonds.
Tax-Bracket Changes: Some municipal bonds generate tax-free income, and therefore pay lower interest rates than taxable bonds. Investors who anticipate a significant drop in their marginal income-tax rate may be better served by the higher yield available from taxable bonds.
Call Risk: Many bonds allow the issuer to repay all or a portion of the bond prior to the maturity date. The investor’s capital is returned with a premium added in exchange for the early debt retirement. While you get your entire initial investment plus some back if the bond is called, your income stream ends earlier than you were expecting it to.

Market Risk: The underlying price of a particular bond changes in response to market conditions. When interest rates fall, newly issued bonds will pay a lower yield than existing issues, which makes the older bonds more attractive. Investors who want the higher yield may be willing to pay a premium to get it. Likewise, if interest rates rise, newly issued bonds will pay a higher yield than existing issues. Investors who buy the older issues are likely to do so only if they get it at a discount. If you buy a bond and hold it until maturity, market risk is not a factor because your principal investment will be returned in full at maturity. Should you choose to sell prior to the maturity date, your gain or loss will be dictated by market conditions, and the appropriate tax consequences for capital gains or losses will apply.

Footnotes:

[1] This statement is taking into consideration an example that the yield generated from a Municipal Bond is after tax money, whereas a yield from qualified accounts is tax deferred, and the income taxes due at the time of withdrawal/distribution from a qualified account would take away a large part of the income generated in the investment made in the qualified account.  This statement is general in nature, and does not account for price fluctuation, risk, solvency, individualized tax needs, and all other risk factors, but rather is made to note this into account when making investment decisions, and should be used for informational and educational purposes.  Please refer to your Financial Advisor, CPA, and other advisors and specialists for more information about your own personal needs before making any decisions.
[2] According to MSRB market statistics, the value of the Municipal Bond market reached $2.9 Trillion as of the end of first quarter of 2011.  For more information please go to www.MSRB.org

[3] To view the complete Municipal Bond Fairness Act and the report on Table A please go to http://www.bondview.com/articles/municipal_bond_fairness_act_us_congress
[4]“SIPC shall be a membership corporation the members of which shall be all persons registered as brokers or dealers under section 78o(b) of this title, other than:
(i) persons whose principal business, in the determination of SIPC, taking into account business
of affiliated entities, is conducted outside the United States and its territories and possessions;
(ii) persons whose business as a broker or dealer consists exclusively of (I) the distribution of
shares of registered open end investment companies or unit investment trusts, (II) the sale of variable
annuities, (III) the business of insurance, or (IV) the business of rendering investment advisory services
to one or more registered investment companies or insurance company separate accounts; and
(iii) persons who are registered as a broker or dealer pursuant to section 78o(b)(11)(A) of this title.

[5] There have been over 360 Bank Failures requiring FDIC assistance in the period between January 2008 and March 2011 according to FDIC.  For more information please go to www.fdic.gov

[6] Over the last 10 years period, the annual average of new cases was four.  Since the SIPC’s inception in 1970, there have been 322 proceedings commenced under SIPA, with customer distributions of approximately $109.3 Billion.  Source: SIPC 2010 Annual Report.  To view entire report please go to http://sipc.org/pdf/2010%20Annual%20Report.pdf or find more information on www.sipc.org
[7] See RISK FACTORS disclosure at the end of the article
[8] Correlation: In the world of finance, a statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other.  For a full definition and examples go to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correlation.asp
[http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
[12] Treasuries have gone down in price significantly since the article was written.  For current prices call your financial advisor or go to link noted in footnote 12.
[13] See footnote 2
[14] As of the date of the revision, there have been 64 Municipal bond defaults totaling approximately $5.4 Billion out of the $2.9 Trillion market, representing approximately 0.2% of market.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

“This Blog is for the purpose of sharing of personal opinion and should not be construed in any way as advice. The information contained in this report or information provided does not purport to be complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The contributors to this blog and or their affiliates may directly or indirectly have active positions in the securities that are mentioned. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ron Reuven is a registered principal of Reuven Enterprises Securities Division, Member FINRA/SIPC & Licensed MSRB Dealer, a fully owned subsidiary of Reuven Enterprises Inc. and is President & Managing Partner of Reuven Capital Investments, LP (long/short equity hedge fund).”
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